VALTIVRA publishes a monthly U.S. Recession Risk Score, a regime label, an explanation of the model's inputs, a descriptive Market Stress Monitor, and the methodology and validation record behind them. It is general economic information intended for professional users. It is currently a free, invitation-only beta.
Nothing on this site or in the service is investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, an offer or solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or to take any business decision. VALTIVRA is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer or commodity trading adviser. Outputs do not take account of any person's circumstances. You are responsible for any decision you make.
The service is provided "as is" and "as available". We do not warrant that it is accurate, complete, timely, uninterrupted or fit for any purpose. The validation record is a walk-forward simulation on historical data; past performance of the score does not guarantee future results, and the methodology page lists the known failures. To the fullest extent permitted by law, VALTIVRA and Shane J. Hladinec are not liable for any loss, including trading or business losses, arising from use of or reliance on the service, and in any event total liability is limited to the amount you paid for the service in the twelve months before the claim (which, during the beta, is nothing).
Access is personal to the invited individual. Do not share sign-in links or redistribute the dashboard, scores or downloads to third parties, except that you may quote the current score and regime, with attribution to VALTIVRA, in your own work for clients or colleagues. Do not attempt to access other accounts, probe the service, or reverse-engineer the model.
The methodology, model, scores, text, design and the VALTIVRA name are owned by Shane J. Hladinec. Underlying economic data belong to their publishers (see the methodology page for attribution); the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is used as a model input with permission and is not displayed. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The beta is free, may change, may be suspended and will end. Features, wording and data sources may change during it; the frozen methodology will not change without a designated new version. We may end an account at any time, and you may leave at any time by asking. If the service ends, subscribers will be given the published score record.
The privacy policy is part of these terms.
These terms are governed by the laws of the State of Maine, United States, and any dispute will be heard in the state or federal courts located in Maine.
If these terms change materially, the effective date above changes and subscribers are told by email. Continued use after that is acceptance.
[email protected] · 299 Dixmont Rd, Monroe, Maine 04951.